* CEE currencies, bonds firm as Fed does not turn hawkish * Romanian protests continue, weigh on asset prices * Czech central bank unlikely to change guidance on crown cap By Sandor Peto and Jason Hovet BUDAPEST/PRAGUE, Feb 2 Central European assets mostly firmed on Thursday on relief that the U.S. Federal Reserve gave no hint of accelerating its rate hikes, but Romania lagged behind the region following anti-government protests. Rising interest rates in the United States would make emerging markets assets relatively less attractive. Hungary's forint led regional gains, firming 0.4 percent to 308.65 against the euro, to levels seen before dovish central bank comments sent it into a slide last month. The leu steadied at 4.5405, slightly off 7-month lows hit on Wednesday after massive street protests erupted in Romania over the four-week-old leftist government's "emergency" decree to ease anti-corruption rules. Hundreds of thousands rallied on Wednesday night again, Romania's president condemned the decree, Western states including Germany and the United Statses expressed concern over the decision and on Thursday a cabinet minister resigned. Romanian markets have calmed somewhat after Wednesday's plunge, but analysts said further jitters in politics and asset prices were likely. "The street protests announced in Bucharest and in the main cities could continue in the following days," Raiffeisen said in a note on the region's markets. Romania's 3-year bond yield was bid at a 7-month high of 1.878 percent, up 13 basis points, and the uncertainty could weigh on an auction of 2-year bonds scheduled for Thursday. Meanwhile, an auction of bonds is seen drawing ample demand in Hungary, where yields dropped 2-3 basis points, a Budapest-based dealer said. Czech bond yields dropped ahead of the central bank's meeting. The meeting might revive speculation for a surge of the Czech crown later this year, even though the bank is not expected to change its guidance that a likely exit from a cap on the crown's, would happen around mid-2017. The cap has kept the crown weaker than 27 against the euro since 2013, but as inflation has risen to the bank's target, investors have scrambled to buy crown assets this year, speculating on a removal of the ceiling. Commerzbank analysts said in a note that commodity prices and base effects still played a major role in Czech price data, so the bank would not scrap the cap before mid-2017. Most analysts in a Reuters poll said the cap would be removed in the second quarter. "Whatever the (central bank) says, the (inflation) forecast will be a key thing to watch," one trader said. CEE SNAPS AT 1010 MARKETS HOT CET CURRENCIES Lates Previ Daily Chang t ous e bid close chang in e 2017 Czech crown 27.02 27.02 +0.0 -0.05 10 45 1% % Hungary 308.6 309.8 +0.4 0.06% forint 500 800 0% Polish 4.309 4.312 +0.0 2.20% zloty 0 8 9% Romanian 4.540 4.541 +0.0 -0.12 leu 5 5 2% % Croatian 7.456 7.465 +0.1 1.32% kuna 5 3 2% Serbian 123.9 124.0 +0.1 -0.45 dinar 100 500 1% % Note: daily calculate previ close 1800 change d from ous at CET STOCK S Lates Previ Daily Chang t ous e close chang in e 2017 Prague 940.9 938.2 +0.2 +2.1 9 3 9% 0% Budapest 32623 32584 +0.1 +1.9 .41 .18 2% 4% Warsaw 2075. 2079. -0.18 +6.5 41 10 % 4% Bucharest 7521. 7527. -0.09 +6.1 22 94 % 6% Ljubljana 744.0 741.1 +0.4 +3.6 9 6 0% 9% Zagreb 2150. 2151. -0.05 +7.8 68 72 % 1% Belgrade <.BELEX15 698.5 700.8 -0.33 -2.62 > 8 8 % % Sofia 594.2 593.8 +0.0 +1.3 2 0 7% 3% BONDS Yield Yield Sprea Daily d (bid) chang vs chang e Bund e in Czech sprea Republic d 2-year <CZ2YT=RR -0.72 -0.08 +001 -6bps > 2 1 bps 5-year <CZ5YT=RR -0.12 -0.01 +028 +0bp > 9 8 bps s 10-year <CZ10YT=R 0.47 -0.02 +001 -1bps R> 2 bps Poland 2-year <PL2YT=RR 2.208 -0.01 +294 +1bp > 1 bps s 5-year <PL5YT=RR 3.141 -0.02 +355 -1bps > 9 bps 10-year <PL10YT=R 3.832 -0.04 +337 -3bps R> bps FORWARD RATE AGREEMENT 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M inter bank Czech Rep < 0.25 0.23 0.24 0 PRIBOR=> Hungary < 0.33 0.42 0.52 0.25 BUBOR=> Poland < 1.765 1.805 1.89 1.73 WIBOR=> Note: FRA are for quotes ask prices ************************************************** ************ (Additional reporting by Luiza Ilie in Bucharest; Editing by Gareth Jones)
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Thursday, February 2, 2017
CEE MARKETS-Romanian assets, hit by protests, lag post-Fed rebound
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